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« Ratzinger on the Papacy; Saint John Paul II? | Main | More Ratzinger Stuff »

Sunday, April 17, 2005


C Neumeier

Game theory would say that we ought to take into account that the Cardinals also know that a small majority can elect their candidate if they hold firm. Thus, if Ratzinger (or anyone else, for that matter) gets 58+ votes on enough successive ballots, I would expect other electors to join the bandwagon -- nobody really wants a long conclave, do they?
The question then becomes how many ballots is "enough successive"; that, I would not care to guess.

Mark Brumley

Looks like folks joined the "bandwagon". My scenario was simply a hypothetical if Ratzinger mustered only a simple majority at the outset and couldn't pick up significantly more support in successive balloting. As it turned out, he had more support. It would be interesting to know what the initial vote was. Obviously, having gotten elected on the 4th ballot, Ratzinger must have had some fairly helfty support from the outset, even if it was only implicit.

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